Friday 4 April 2014

Our Latest Market Comment - Right Royal Result

Arlington & Hall Estate Agents looks back to 30 years ago and compares the property market then and now.

The impending royal visit to Australia by the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and the young Price George reminds us of another royal visit made by Prince William in 1983 when he was eight months old. On that occasion, his parents, the Prince and Princess of Wales, accompanied him.

Back then, the UK market was in much the same state as it is now - climbing out of a recession. The boom years of the late 1980s and the full significance of Thatcher's Right to Buy policy were really yet to come.

A great deal has happened in the property market over the past thirty years. Quite apart from two recessions - including the great banking crisis of '07 and its aftermath - the picture has changed quite dramatically. Back then, the average price for a home was just under £50,000. Today, Land Registry figures show that the average price in the UK is £168,356 - up by 4.2% in a year. Figures just released also show that, last month alone, house prices saw their biggest monthly rise for more than four years.

According to the Nationwide building society, average prices increased by 8.4% last year, and some forecasters expect an increase of 8% in 2014.

Halifax has the longest running survey, going back more than thirty years. The bank estimates that, over this period, increase in prices means that homeowners have been making the equivalent of 5.84% a year - tax free.

If there ever was good news for buyers it was the Bank of England governer Mark Carney signalling recently that interest rates will not rise for a year, and even after that they will only rise slowly. It is difficult to think of another occasion when homebuyers had such advance warning that the mortgage rate won't increase substantially for several years to come.

But another reason to think seriously about buying now is this: Should Prince George and his family visit Australia in 2044, the average price of a UK home - if house price inflation remains the same - could be over £950,000. Now that is a right royal result!